The Quick Answer: Spending Determines Everything
Assuming you retire at 65 with $1 million invested in a moderate portfolio (60/40 stocks and bonds) earning an average 5-6% return, here's how long your money lasts at different spending levels — before accounting for Social Security:
These are simplified estimates. Actual results depend on sequence of returns (a crash in year one hurts more than in year ten), inflation, taxes, and other income. A year-by-year projection with Monte Carlo simulation gives you a much more reliable picture.
Social Security Changes the Math
Social Security reduces what you need to withdraw from savings. That single change can add decades to how long your million lasts.
$60,000/year spending, rising with inflation — with and without Social Security
| Scenario | Annual Withdrawal | Withdrawal Rate | Money Lasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Social Security | $60,000 | 6.0% | ~21 years |
| + $2,000/mo SS at 67 | $36,000 | 3.6% | ~40 years |
| + $2,480/mo SS at 70 | $30,240 | 3.0% | 50+ years |
| + Couple, both claiming at 67 | $12,000 | 1.2% | Indefinite |
Assumes a 5% average annual return and moderate 3% inflation: spending, and the withdrawal it requires, rises 3% each year. “Indefinite” means the portfolio grows faster than withdrawals — you never run out.
This is why Social Security timing matters so much. Delaying to 70 doesn't just increase your check — it reduces your portfolio withdrawal rate, which compounds over decades.
Five Factors That Determine Your Timeline
Annual spending
The single biggest factor. Every $10,000 reduction in spending adds roughly 3-5 years to how long your money lasts. Most retirees naturally spend less in their 80s than their 60s — factor that in.
Investment returns
At 4% average returns, $1M at $50K/year lasts ~22 years. At 6%, ~28 years. But averages mislead — a bad sequence of returns in early retirement is far more damaging than a bad year later. This is why Monte Carlo simulation matters.
Inflation
At 3% inflation, your $60,000 spending habit costs $108,000 in 20 years. Any projection that doesn't account for inflation is giving you a dangerously optimistic answer.
Social Security & other income
Every dollar of guaranteed income reduces your portfolio draw. Social Security, pensions, rental income, and part-time work all stretch the million further.
Taxes
Withdrawals from traditional 401(k) and IRA accounts are taxed as income. If $60,000 of your spending comes from a traditional IRA, you may need to withdraw $70,000+ to cover taxes. Roth withdrawals are tax-free.
Three Real Scenarios
Comfortable: The million lasts
Couple, both 65. $1M saved. $50K/year spending. Combined Social Security: $3,500/mo starting at 67.
Result: They withdraw $50K/year for 2 years until SS kicks in, then only $8K/year from savings. At 5% returns, the portfolio likely grows from age 67 onward. The million outlasts them.
Tight but workable: Make it to 90
Single, 65. $1M saved. $55K/year spending. Social Security: $2,200/mo at 67.
Result: After SS, withdrawals drop to $28,600/year (2.86% rate). At moderate returns, the money lasts to ~90-92. Reducing spending by $5K/year or delaying SS to 70 adds 3-5 years.
Risky: Money runs out in mid-80s
Single, 62. $1M saved. $70K/year spending. Social Security: $1,400/mo at 62 (claimed early).
Result: Withdrawals of $53,200/year (5.3% rate) from age 62. High withdrawal rate plus early claiming means the portfolio depletes by ~age 82-84. Waiting until 67 to claim SS and reducing spending to $60K adds 5+ years.
Model Your Own Scenario
Generic scenarios are useful, but your retirement is specific. Evernest lets you enter your own numbers — savings, spending, Social Security, other income, your inflation rate, your tax rate — and see a year-by-year cash flow chart showing exactly how long your money lasts.
The free tier includes the full projection engine. Upgrade to the paid plan ($47.88/year) for Monte Carlo simulation with 50,000 scenarios, multiple portfolios, and advanced features.
What you can test:
- • Different spending levels — find the line between comfort and running out
- • Social Security at 62 vs 67 vs 70 — see the year-by-year difference
- • Part-time work in early retirement — how much does a bridge income help?
- • Spending that decreases over time — most people spend less after 80
- • Rental income, self-employment, ACA subsidies
Try Evernest's Free Standalone Calculators
Quick answers to specific questions — no account required:
How Long Will Your Money Last?
Enter your actual numbers. See a year-by-year projection. Free tier includes the full engine — no account linking, no credit card, no AI.